Source: Portos e Navios
Publication date: September 15, 2026

Brazilian grain production for the 2026/27 crop year could reach 366.6 million metric tons. The positive outlook reflects an increase in planted area, projected at 85.3 million hectares. The figures are included in the 14th edition of the Agricultural Outlook, published on Tuesday (September 15) by the National Supply Company (Conab), in partnership with Banco do Brasil (BB).

Conab also forecasts stronger international demand for Brazilian grain, with exports potentially reaching 46 million metric tons during the 2026/27 crop year. According to the company’s projections, corn production could reach its highest volume recorded in the past 13 years, at 32.1 million metric tons, driven by a 10.7% increase in planted area during the first corn crop, with 4.54 million hectares allocated to planting in 2026/27.

The planted area for the second corn crop is expected to increase by 3.7%, potentially reaching 18.48 million hectares, resulting in estimated production of 113.2 million metric tons. For the third corn crop, the projected harvest is approximately 2.6 million metric tons, bringing total corn production for the 2026/27 crop year to around 148 million metric tons, an increase of 2.8% compared with the 2025/26 crop year.

Regarding soybeans, the outlook for the 2026/27 crop year points to moderate production growth, reaching 181.64 million metric tons. The cultivated area is estimated at 49.3 million hectares, representing a slight increase of 1.4% compared with the previous crop, the lowest percentage growth recorded over the past 20 years.

For rice, the definition of the planted area for the 2026/27 crop year comes after a period of significant decline in profitability. Excess supply during the 2024/25 crop year increased domestic availability, putting downward pressure on prices throughout the 2025/26 crop year and reducing the economic returns of the crop. The planted area is projected at 1.53 million hectares in 2026/27, a slight increase of 0.9% compared with the previous crop year. Production is expected to reach 10.76 million metric tons, down 2.9% from the 2025/26 crop year.

Bean production is expected to remain around 2.9 million metric tons. According to Conab’s analysis, the season is projected to see a slight increase in cultivated area, which is expected to offset lower yields, primarily due to climatic risks associated with the El Niño phenomenon.

For cotton, Conab projects that the planted area will return to levels recorded in the 2024/25 crop year, potentially reaching 2.09 million hectares and resulting in production of approximately 4.2 million metric tons of cotton lint.

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